Teddy Bridgewater TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Teddy Bridgewater

NFL · Player Props

Teddy Bridgewater

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Teddy Bridgewater TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (67.3%).
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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