Taysom Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Taysom Hill

NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
Taysom Hill has averaged 4.8 carries per game this year, one of the highest rates in the league among QBs (81st percentile).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Taysom Hill has rushed for substantially more yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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