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Taysom Hill

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.3% run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
  • Taysom Hill has averaged 4.8 carries per game this year, one of the highest rates in the league among QBs (81st percentile).
  • The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
  • Taysom Hill has rushed for substantially more yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
  • The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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