Taysom Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Taysom Hill

NFL · Player Props

Taysom Hill

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Taysom Hill has averaged 5.2 carries per game this year, one of the largest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (80th percentile).
Taysom Hill has rushed for a lot more yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).
Taysom Hill's ground effectiveness has gotten better this year, averaging 6.75 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.37 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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