Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.

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