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Taylor Heinicke

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (9.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).

The New York Giants defense has had the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.35 yards-per-carry.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.

Taylor Heinicke has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

Taylor Heinicke's running effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging just 3.91 yards-per-carry vs a 6.28 figure last year.

The New York Giants defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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