Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (9.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
The New York Giants defense has had the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.35 yards-per-carry.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).
Taylor Heinicke's running effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging just 3.91 yards-per-carry vs a 6.28 figure last year.
The New York Giants defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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