Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.6% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).
Taylor Heinicke's running efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a mere 3.76 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.28 rate last year.

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