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Taylor Heinicke
NFL · Player Props
Taylor Heinicke
QB · Washington Commanders
Rushing Yards
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022 Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -140.

Favors Over
  • The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.6% in games he has played).
  • The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
  • Taylor Heinicke has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).
  • Taylor Heinicke's running efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a mere 3.76 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.28 rate last year.
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