Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-956).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -956.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (9.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in football (1.44 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (2nd percentile).

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