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Taylor Heinicke

Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Taylor Heinicke Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-956).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -956.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (9.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).

Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in football (1.44 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.

The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Taylor Heinicke has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (2nd percentile).

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