Taylor Heinicke Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (12.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.8% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 116.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

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