Tank Bigsby Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tank Bigsby

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 10:33 PM EST

Analysis

Tank Bigsby Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+756/-967).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -967.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to call 64.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and running stats increased) considering playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We ought to be able to count on some regression with better weather in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The predictive model expects Tank Bigsby to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game (7.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (51.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.6 plays per game.
With a low 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Tank Bigsby ranks among the RB receiving threats with the lowest volume near the end zone in football.
Tank Bigsby does not have any receiving touchdowns since the start of last season.