Tank Bigsby Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tank Bigsby

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Tank Bigsby Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-519).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -519.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Last year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a monstrous 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.
Last year, the feeble Commanders defense has yielded a monstrous 0.24 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone run rate.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Tank Bigsby's 1.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the worst in the NFL: 11th percentile for RBs.