Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tank Bigsby

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-148/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -789 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to run on 49.3% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
With an exceptional tally of 5.87 adjusted yards per carry (95th percentile), Tank Bigsby ranks among the best pure rushers in football last year.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (142 per game) versus the Commanders defense last year.

Favors Under

The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.