Tank Bigsby Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tank Bigsby

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Tank Bigsby Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Last year, the deficient Washington Commanders defense has given up the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a colossal 7.38 yards.
Last year, the poor Commanders defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Tank Bigsby's 1.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the worst in the NFL: 11th percentile for RBs.
Tank Bigsby comes in as one of the weakest RB receiving threats last year, averaging a mere 3.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 18th percentile among RBs.