Sterling Shepard Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Jets

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1236/-1685).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
Since the start of last season, the poor Bears defense has been torched for a colossal 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 1.15 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The New York Jets have been the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 50.0% red zone run rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the projection model to run only 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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