Sterling Shepard Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Jets

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+756/-967).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Lions defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.21 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Jets offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.50 seconds per snap.
Since the start of last season, the stout Detroit Lions defense has given up a meager 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Detroit's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

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