Sterling Shepard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects Sterling Shepard to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game in this contest (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68%) versus wide receivers this year (68.0%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the New York Giants to be the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: fewest in football.
When talking about pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the league this year.
Sterling Shepard grades out as one of the bottom pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a mere 0.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 9th percentile among wide receivers.

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