Sterling Shepard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Sterling Shepard to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.
Sterling Shepard has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 22.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Sterling Shepard has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (70.3%) to wideouts since the start of last season (70.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.