Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
Sterling Shepard has received a whopping 24.5% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wideouts.
Sterling Shepard has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 56.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (172.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sterling Shepard to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass game this week (15.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.8% in games he has played).
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Sterling Shepard has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a lowly 7.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 21st percentile among WRs