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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-124/-107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -124.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.

Stefon Diggs has run a route on 81.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

In this game, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile among WRs with 6.6 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and play styles of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.12 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo out of all the games this week.

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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