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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.

In this week's game, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 98th percentile among WRs with 10.1 targets.

With a sizeable 29.9% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs stands among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.

The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Stefon Diggs's 7.9 adjusted catches per game this year marks a a material gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.8 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Jaguars defense has conceded a mere 64.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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