Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to garner 9.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Stefon Diggs's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 72.7% to 86.4%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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