Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to garner 10.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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