Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 10.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
With a sizeable 29.8% Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Stefon Diggs's 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 72.7% figure.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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