My Account Log Out

reorder

Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).

The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™