Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.