Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+127/-171).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to garner 8.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 28.8% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's receiving talent has gotten better this year, totaling 7.1 yards per game compared to just 5.9 last year.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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