Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) vs. wideouts this year (61.5%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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