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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-113/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.

The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to notch 6.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Stefon Diggs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a substantial drop-off in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 3.9% rate.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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