Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-155/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 84.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Stefon Diggs has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.

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