Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (-107/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 90.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 90.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 12.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.