Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-102/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has notched a monstrous 114.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 91st percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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