Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 38.5% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has posted a monstrous 116.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs's 67.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 96th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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