Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+151/-207).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has accumulated a monstrous 115.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.