Stefon Diggs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 29.3% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has compiled far more air yards this year (113.0 per game) than he did last year (108.0 per game).
Stefon Diggs's 69.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 62.5.
Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.0% to 73.2%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 4th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.62 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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