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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 29.9% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Stefon Diggs has put up a monstrous 118.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among wideouts.

Stefon Diggs's 71.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 97th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).

The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.55 per game this year.

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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