Sony Michel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Sony Michel

NFL · Player Props

Sony Michel

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (149 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Sony Michel has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this year (25.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (53.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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