Sony Michel Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sony Michel

NFL · Player Props

Sony Michel

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Sony Michel Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-714).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +372 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +360.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in football (1.25 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.8% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Sony Michel has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the league among running backs (1st percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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