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Sony Michel

Sony Michel Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Sony Michel Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+367/-735).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -712 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -735.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.40 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Sony Michel to be much less involved in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (30.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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