Skylar Thompson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Skylar Thompson

NFL · Player Props

Skylar Thompson

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Skylar Thompson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.1% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the league against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (75.6%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 4th-least passing TDs in football: 0.80 per game this year.

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