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Shi Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/-121).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.Shi Smith's 23.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 10.5.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.Shi Smith has been among the worst wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a mere 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs.Shi Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 47.1% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among wideouts
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