Shi Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Shi Smith

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Panthers are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.3 plays per game.
Shi Smith has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching just 47.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 6th percentile among wideouts
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (58.6%) versus wide receivers this year (58.6%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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