Shi Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+152/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) to WRs since the start of last season (67.5%).
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Shi Smith has been among the weakest pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has given their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.