Shi Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Shi Smith

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Shi Smith has accrued far more air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
Shi Smith has been among the worst WRs in the game this year, averaging a lowly 17.0 yards per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among wideouts.
Shi Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 47.1% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among wideouts

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