Saquon Barkley Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+114/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to call 64.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and running stats increased) considering playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We ought to be able to count on some regression with better weather in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
While Saquon Barkley has accounted for 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Philadelphia's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 10.8%.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (51.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.6 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 75.5% to 46.9%.
With a remarkable ratio of 0.35 rushing touchdowns per game (84th percentile), Saquon Barkley has been among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the league since the start of last season.