Saquon Barkley Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
With an impressive 11.9% Red Zone Target Share (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Saquon Barkley ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.
As it relates to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a striking 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Saquon Barkley rates in the 89th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 17.0 figure since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
Saquon Barkley has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among RBs, catching just 73.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 9th percentile.
With an excellent ratio of 0.37 rushing touchdowns per game (84th percentile), Saquon Barkley has been as one of the best rushing TD-scorers in the NFL since the start of last season.