Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 19.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this year (71.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.1%).

Favors Under

The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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