Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 18.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been much more involved in his offense's run game this year (71.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (58.1%).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The New York Giants have incorporated motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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