Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Saquon Barkley has run a route on 66.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has been among the top RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs, completing just 78.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 24th percentile.