Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-159).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per play.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has been among the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging an impressive 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Saquon Barkley's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 72.4% to 80.1%.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (72.8%) to running backs this year (72.8%).

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