Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Eagles this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: most in football.
The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 3.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has accumulated a staggering 7.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The model projects the Eagles as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the model to run just 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Saquon Barkley's 19.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.4.
The Ravens safeties project as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.