Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 11, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-most plays in football have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a monstrous 59.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Saquon Barkley to total 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Saquon Barkley has notched a colossal 10.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 27.4.
Saquon Barkley grades out as one of the weakest running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 5.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.